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Industrial production fell 10.4% in July 2020

Industrial production fell 10.4% in July 2020, compared year-on-year to the Industrial Production Index (PII), released by the Center on Friday. Mining and manufacturing fell 13% and 11%, respectively, although power generation fell back to a 2.5% contraction. Economists believe the recovery is slowing, pointing out that while the July IIP contraction is significantly better than the 57% drop seen in April, it is only a slight improvement over the 15.7% contraction. year on year observed in June.

  • IIP data shows that the strong recovery seen in May and June is turning somewhat flat, this is partly due to local / partial / weekend closures imposed in many parts of the country, often without much prior information.
  • This does not allow an orderly resumption of economic activities, the PII’s growth trend reflects the GSDP’s weighted labor mobility trend, which also stabilized in July and August after a strong recovery in May and June.
  • The industrial recovery process will take time and will require sustained political support. In its official statement releasing the IIP data, the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has repeatedly stated that” it may not be appropriate to compare the IIP in the months following the pandemic with the PII from previous months COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The Ministry noted that a large number of industrial establishments had not operated since the end of March due to the shutdown, adding that industrial activity is now resuming with the lifting of restrictions. Pharmaceutical manufacturing, which have posted 22% growth, and tobacco products, which grew 6.1%, were the only two sectors in positive territory in July.
  • Automotive and paper and beverage manufacturing continued to grow. contractions stronger at 30%. Downward trend in textile (-14.8%) and clothing (-28.7%) manufacturing could be significant from an employment perspective.
  • Moody’s Investors Service on Friday cut India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year to (-) 11.5%, from (-) 4% previously estimated. India’s credit profile was over additionally limited by low growth, high debt and a fina ncier weak.
  • These risks have been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. “Mutually reinforcing risks from deeper tensions in the economy and the financial system could lead to a more serious and prolonged erosion of fiscal strength, putting additional pressure on the credit profile,
  • ” Moody’s said in projecting a contraction of 11, 5% of the Indian economy during this fiscal year. For 2021-2022, thhe forecasts that the economy will grow by 10.6%. Moody’s action follows another global rating agency, Fitch, which earlier this week predicted a 10.5% contraction in India’s economy this fiscal year.
  • National agencies Crisil and India Ratings and Research have projected a contraction of 9% and 11.8%, respectively. Crisil Research said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would contract 9% in FY21, more than its May estimate of a 5% contraction.
  • This rate of decline has not been observed since the 1950s, he added. “With the peak of the pandemic not yet in sight and the government not providing adequate direct tax support, the downside risks from our previous forecast have materialized,” Crisil Research said.
  • “If the pandemic were to peak in September-October, GDP growth could shift into slightly positive territory towards the end of this fiscal year … But the risks to our outlook will continue to tilt lower until then a vaccine and a product comes in ”.
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