23rd May 2022

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Cyclone “Nisarga”

Less than two weeks after the passage of a powerful cyclone in West Bengal en route to Bangladesh, India is preparing to face another cyclone, this time on its west coast.

Cyclone Nisarga Path Forecast. (IANS Infographics)

In strength and intensity, it would be much weaker than Cyclone Amphan, which struck on May 20. In fact, right now it’s not even a complete cyclone, just a “depression” that is likely to degenerate into a “deep depression”, would be called as Nisarga.

It heads for the coast of northern Maharashtra and southern Gujarat and expected to hit the coast on Wednesday, between Harihareshwar in the Raigad district, just south of Mumbai, and Daman, just below the Gujarat coast.

At its strongest point, Nisarga would be associated with wind speeds of around 95 to 105 km / h. while Amphan, on the other hand, was classified as a category 5 supercyclone, although it weakened in category 4, “extremely severe cyclonic storm”, before touching down at this time, the wind speed was greater than 180 km / h.

Cyclones formed on the Bay of Bengal side in the northern Indian Ocean are more frequent and stronger than those on the Arabian Sea side. Meteorologists suggest that the relatively cold waters of the Arabian Sea discourage the type of very strong cyclones that form on the Bay of Bengal side; Odisha and Andhra Pradesh face the worst part of these cyclones every year.

However, last year was a bit unusual, as the Arabian Sea has seen the most frequent and intense cyclone activity in more than 100 years, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. Five cyclones originated in the region in 2019: Vayu, Hikka, Kyarr, Maha and Pavan, whereas normally one or two are formed.

If the system intensifies in a cyclonic storm, some coastal districts of Maharashtra will be directly aligned with their planned trajectory. Although the exact location of the landing has not yet been determined, it is probably close to Mumbai. The neighbors of Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg will also be affected, heavy to very heavy rains are expected in these regions until June 4.

The southwest monsoon has already started over Kerala. There is an associated depression parallel to the west coast which intensifies and moves north along the coast.

Under such circumstances, the central-eastern and south-eastern regions of the Arabian Sea are already experiencing unfavorable weather conditions, which are expected to intensify due to this cyclone.

The rain for the next three days in Maharashtra would not be due to the southwest monsoon, which has not yet started moving north from Kerala. Normally, the monsoon reaches Maharashtra after June 10.

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