27th January 2022

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Home | Analysis | India’s July manufacturing PMI contracts faster than in June

India’s July manufacturing PMI contracts faster than in June

Data released by the data analytics firm IHS Markit showed purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing declined slightly in July to 46 from 47.2 in June.

  • A figure of above 50 indicates expansion, while a sub-50 print signals contraction.
  • Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), the country’s largest fuel retailer on Friday said that its capacity utilization, which had increased to around 93% in the first week of July, has come down to 75% on account of many state governments imposing fresh lockdowns measures.
  • The IMF has estimated Indian economy to contract by 4.5% in FY21, while Goldman Sachs expected the June quarter to be the worst, with GDP shrinking by 45% as business activity came to a standstill for at least two months due to stringent lockdown measures.
  • ICRA Ltd earlier this month revised its GDP projection for India in FY21 to contraction of 9.5% from 5% estimated earlier citing unabated rise in covid-19 infections in the unlock phase and persisting labour supply mismatches affecting supply chains and consumption patterns.
  • “Given the severity of the pandemic and the duration of the safety measures that need to be employed, we now expect a deeper pace of GDP contraction in Q2 FY21 relative to our earlier forecast.
  • The timeline for a firmer recovery out of the contractionary phase is now being pushed ahead to at least Q4 FY21 from Q3 FY21,” it added.
  • Subdued demand was evident in the latest PMI by marked decrease in new orders placed with manufacturers during July.
  • Similar to the trend for output, the pace of decline accelerated from June, but remained slower than at the height of the current crisis.
  • However, despite current operating conditions continuing to deteriorate, manufacturers were increasingly optimistic regarding future activity.
  • Sentiment towards the 12-month business outlook improved for the second month in a row to reach a five-month high even though the degree of positivity was still well below the historical average.
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