The Indian economy grew at a rate of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, with the publication of Q4 GDP growth rate data MOSPI, the entire period growth rate of 2019-2020 pegged at 4.2%. The government also reduced GDP growth in the first, second, and third quarters to 5.2%, 4.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. GDP growth in the fourth quarter becomes significant as it includes the one-week lockdown numbers.

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices in the year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimate of FY19 GDP of Rs 139.81 lakh crore. GDP at constant prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 38.04 lakh crore, compared to Rs 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19.

The government has also revised down the GDP growth in Q1, Q2, and Q3 to 5.2 per cent, 4.4 per cent, and 4.1 per cent respectively., July-Sep GDP growth revised to 4.4% from 5.1% earlier and Oct-Dec GDP growth revised to 4.1% from 4.7% earlier.

Q4 growth highlights

• Manufacturing sector growth at -1.4% vs 2.1% on year.
• Mining sector growth at 5.2% against -4.8% on year.
• Farm sector growth is at 5.9% against 1.6% on year.
• Jan-March GVA has expanded 3% on year.
• Govt sees FY20 GDP growth at 4.2% on-year.

Meanwhile, the growth rate of eight core industries for April 2020 fell by 38.1 per cent, compared to a fall of 9 per cent in March 2020. 

• The output of electricity fell by 22.8 per cent,
• output of cement fell by 86 per cent;
• steel by 84 per cent;
• fertilizer by 4.5;
• refinery by 24.2 per cent;
• crude oil by 6.4 per cent; and
• Coal by 15.5 per cent in April 2020.

Even before the appearance of coronavirus cases in India, the country’s economy was struggling for a prolonged economic slowdown. A significant drop in economic activity due to the national lockdown led by the coronavirus in the first quarter of the current tax could cause the quarterly GDP to fall.

According to the SBI Ecowrap report the contraction of GDP in the first quarter of FY21 can reach 40%, indicating the possibility of a smart recovery of second-quarter GDP of up to 7.1%, thanks to the country’s capacity to support demand, OSE chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said that the loss of GDP in the first quarter of fiscal 2011 will be huge and could even exceed 40%.

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