BLOGS
Interest rate & Inflation
The Reserve bank of India, decided to keep the economy’s benchmark interest rates unchanged on Thursday. The decision was made after three days of deliberations by the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee. As part of the bi-monthly review of monetary policy on August 4, the RBI’s expectations varied.
- There were people who expected the RBI to lower the repo rate, the interest rate the RBI charges when the banking system borrows from it, given poorer and poorer forecasts for economic growth in India.
- To be sure, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast has been revised downward since the Covid-19 outage hit the economy.
- Right now, most experts expect the economy to contract sharply, by as much as 10 percent, in the current fiscal year.
- Others expected the RBI to sit still and avoid cutting the pension rate because retail inflation, the key variable the RBI is supposed to target, had been above the comfort zone of the RBI for most of that calendar year.
- Ultimately, the RBI MPC unanimously chose to maintain the status quo on the buyback rate.
In a fast-growing economy, incomes rise rapidly and more and more people have the money to buy the existing stack of products. As more and more money ejects the existing pool of goods, the prices of those goods rise.
- In other words, inflation (which is nothing more than the rate of price increase) is skyrocketing.
- To contain inflation, a country’s central bank generally raises interest rates in the economy.
- By doing so, you encourage people to spend less and save more, as saving becomes more profitable as interest rates rise.
- As more and more people choose to save, money is drained from the market and the rate of inflation drops.
- When growth contracts, as it is in the current fiscal year, or when its growth rate slows, as it did throughout 2019, people’s incomes are generally affected as well.
- As a result, less and less money seeks the same amount of goods. This results in a slowdown in the rate of inflation (that is, prices rise by 1% instead of 5%; also called “disinflation”) or contract (also called “deflation”; in other words, prices decrease 1% instead of increasing 5%).
- In such situations, a central bank lowers interest rates to induce spending and thus stimulate economic activity in the economy.
- Lower interest rates mean that it is less profitable to keep your money in the bank or other similar savings vehicle.
- As a result, more and more money enters the market, stimulating growth and inflation.
The RBI is currently facing a strange situation; GDP contracts even as inflation rises. This happens because the pandemic has reduced demand, on the one hand, and interrupted supply, on the other. As a result, both things happen: lower growth and higher inflation.
- It is true that to contain inflation, the RBI would have to raise interest rates, and under normal circumstances, it would have. But raising interest rates at this point would be catastrophic for India’s GDP growth.
Insolvency proceedings against Anil Ambani
The Mumbai National Company Law Court (NCLT) authorized the opening of insolvency proceedings against Anil Ambani after two companies promoted by him failed to pay the quotas of Rs 1200 million they had borrowed at the State Bank. of India (SBI). The insolvency process will begin against Ambani for giving a personal guarantee against the loans given to his companies.
Is this a personal insolvency case against Anil Ambani?
- The case is important because it is one of the first insolvency cases against an executive of a large group of companies.
- In 2015, Reliance Communications Limited (RCom) and Reliance Infratel Limited (RITL) promoted by Anil Ambani approached SBI’s strategic project finance business unit and requested two loans of Rs 565 crore and Rs 635 crore respectively.
- Anil Ambani provided a personal guarantee equivalent to the loan amount of 1200 rupees, which was disbursed in 2016.
- By not repaying the credit granted to RCom and RITL, State Bank invoked the personal guarantee provided by Ambani.
- However, before the same could be applied, both companies were declared insolvent in an application filed by Ericsson India Private Limited.
- Since the companies were admitted to bankruptcy, all of the company’s loans and assets, as well as the promoters, have been placed under moratorium.
- The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) also did not contain provisions relating to personal insolvency.
- The rules for opening personal insolvency were notified last year in December.
What is the personal insolvency process?
- As the NCLT authorized the appointment of an Interim Resolution Professional (IRP) in this matter, SBI will now approach the IRP with a list of assets provided by Ambani as personal collateral when their companies applied for the loan.
- In the case of banks that provide loans with personal collateral, the guarantor must provide a list of assets whose value is equal to the total amount of the loan granted. In the event of non-payment of these assets, these guarantees can be invoked.
- For example, if Ambani’s assets are worth Rs 2,000 crore and the bank’s receivables are worth Rs 1,200 crore, it is possible that the bank will recover all of its payments.
- However, if Ambani claims to have personal wealth less than the value of the personal guarantee he gave him, the banks will have to be happy with what they get.
What happens to Anil Ambani once the insolvency process is finalized?
- Similar to commercial insolvency proceedings, an entrepreneur is free to start with a clean slate after the end of personal insolvency proceedings against him.
- Lenders will only be able to recover their down payments from the security deposited or personal property belonging to that person.
- However, all or part of the goods mentioned in the list provided at the time of sanctioning of the loan, even if they are transferred to another person, can also be seized and sold.
- Ambani will be free to manage other businesses which are not insolvent or which can pay their debts and obligations on time.
Infrastructure investment funds (InvIT)
While the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the creation of the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) to create infrastructure investment funds (InvIT) in December 2019, the company recently started Meet Groups Investors to Prepare Think about your InvIT theme.
- The show will allow NHAI to monetize its completed national highways with a toll collection history of at least one year. NHAI reserves the right to collect tolls on identified roads and will help the company raise funds to further develop roads across the country.
What are invitations?
- Infrastructure investment trusts are institutions similar to mutual funds, which group the investments of various categories of investors and invest them in completed infrastructure projects that generate income, generating profits for the investor.
- The capital market regulator notified the Sebi (Infrastructure Investment Trusts) Regulation 2014 on September 26, 2014, and these trusts are likely to facilitate investments in the infrastructure sector.
- Structured like mutual funds, they have a trustee, sponsor (s), investment manager, and project manager. While the Trustee (certified by Sebi) is responsible for inspecting the performance of an InvIT, the Sponsors are the promoters of the company that created the InvIT.
- In the case of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, this is the infrastructure developer or a special purpose vehicle that owns the concession.
- While the Investment Manager is responsible for overseeing InvIT’s assets and investments, the Project Manager is responsible for the execution of the project.
- NHAI InvIT is a trust established by NHAI under the Indian Trusts Act of 1882 and the SEBI Regulations. InvIT Trust will be formed for the purpose of investing primarily in infrastructure projects.
How does it work?
- Although the fund will be raised by monetizing the completed NHs, the regulations establish that the SPV project would distribute not less than 90% of the net distributable cash flow to the trust in proportion to its participation in each of the SPV projects and, furthermore, not less 90%.
- The percentage of the net distributable cash flow of the trust will be distributed to the participants. Unitholders will receive distributions at least once every six months.
- The funds raised can be invested in the project’s SPV through a debt issue. It can be used by the trust to repay your loans or even for the prepayment of some unsecured loans and advances that the sponsor, the project manager and some members of the sponsoring group take advantage of such project SPVs.
- The Indian InvIT market is not yet mature and has supported the formation of 10 InvITs to date, in the areas of roads, power transmission, gas transportation and telecom towers, of which only two are listed, according to a report of the National Infrastructure Pipeline Working Group. The InvITs listed are the IRB InvIT Fund and the India Grid Trust.
- Listed companies must maintain a maximum leverage ratio of 49%, which can be increased to 70% under certain conditions, such as six rolling distributions to shareholders and a AAA rating.
- Given the large amount of financing required in the infrastructure sector and the unavailability of long-term funds, this structure helps fill this gap by enabling fundraising in financial markets.
Why does NHAI need funding and how will it benefit the economy?
- At a time when private sector investment in the economy is slowing, NHAI’s fundraising and infrastructure spending will not only stimulate the economy, but will also attract private sector investment.
- Therefore, the NHAI InvIT offer, which is expected to arrive soon, is a way for the government to leverage alternative sources of financing to boost public spending in the road and infrastructure sector.
- It is important to note that in October 2017, the Center launched Bharatmala Pariyojana, its flagship highway development program, for the development of 24,800 km of roads with a total investment of Rs 5.35,000 crore.
- To carry out the projects, NHAI needs adequate funding and one of the options is to monetize NH’s completed and operational assets and offer attractive programs for private actors to invest in the construction of national highways.
How does this benefit the investor?
- A retail investor or even a large financial investor may not be able to invest in infrastructure projects such as roads, power, electricity, etc. Invites allow these investors to buy a small portion of the units sold by the fund based on their risk appetite.
- Since these trusts largely consist of completed and operational projects with positive cash flow, the risks are somewhat contained. Investors can benefit from distributed cash flow as well as the capital appreciation of the units.
- Unitholders also benefit from advantageous tax rules, in particular the exemption of dividend income and the absence of capital gains tax if the shares are held for more than three years.
Industrial production fell 10.4% in July 2020
Industrial production fell 10.4% in July 2020, compared year-on-year to the Industrial Production Index (PII), released by the Center on Friday. Mining and manufacturing fell 13% and 11%, respectively, although power generation fell back to a 2.5% contraction. Economists believe the recovery is slowing, pointing out that while the July IIP contraction is significantly better than the 57% drop seen in April, it is only a slight improvement over the 15.7% contraction. year on year observed in June.
- IIP data shows that the strong recovery seen in May and June is turning somewhat flat, this is partly due to local / partial / weekend closures imposed in many parts of the country, often without much prior information.
- This does not allow an orderly resumption of economic activities, the PII’s growth trend reflects the GSDP’s weighted labor mobility trend, which also stabilized in July and August after a strong recovery in May and June.
- The industrial recovery process will take time and will require sustained political support. In its official statement releasing the IIP data, the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has repeatedly stated that” it may not be appropriate to compare the IIP in the months following the pandemic with the PII from previous months COVID-19 pandemic.
- The Ministry noted that a large number of industrial establishments had not operated since the end of March due to the shutdown, adding that industrial activity is now resuming with the lifting of restrictions. Pharmaceutical manufacturing, which have posted 22% growth, and tobacco products, which grew 6.1%, were the only two sectors in positive territory in July.
- Automotive and paper and beverage manufacturing continued to grow. contractions stronger at 30%. Downward trend in textile (-14.8%) and clothing (-28.7%) manufacturing could be significant from an employment perspective.
- Moody’s Investors Service on Friday cut India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year to (-) 11.5%, from (-) 4% previously estimated. India’s credit profile was over additionally limited by low growth, high debt and a fina ncier weak.
- These risks have been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. “Mutually reinforcing risks from deeper tensions in the economy and the financial system could lead to a more serious and prolonged erosion of fiscal strength, putting additional pressure on the credit profile,
- ” Moody’s said in projecting a contraction of 11, 5% of the Indian economy during this fiscal year. For 2021-2022, thhe forecasts that the economy will grow by 10.6%. Moody’s action follows another global rating agency, Fitch, which earlier this week predicted a 10.5% contraction in India’s economy this fiscal year.
- National agencies Crisil and India Ratings and Research have projected a contraction of 9% and 11.8%, respectively. Crisil Research said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would contract 9% in FY21, more than its May estimate of a 5% contraction.
- This rate of decline has not been observed since the 1950s, he added. “With the peak of the pandemic not yet in sight and the government not providing adequate direct tax support, the downside risks from our previous forecast have materialized,” Crisil Research said.
- “If the pandemic were to peak in September-October, GDP growth could shift into slightly positive territory towards the end of this fiscal year … But the risks to our outlook will continue to tilt lower until then a vaccine and a product comes in ”.
Indian Job Conundrum
All countries see real progress when they create jobs. This happens when small and medium-sized businesses grow and create jobs at the same time. India, over the years, has faced the problem of lack of support. There are not enough medium-sized companies operating in the country.
How are job creation and company size related?
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), in a recent report titled India’s Tipping Point: An Economic Agenda to Stimulate Growth and Jobs, notes that India has around 600 large companies with revenues of more than $ 500 million dollars per year.
- The labor productivity of these companies is 11 times higher than that of the economy in general.
- These companies are also responsible for 40% of exports and employ 20% of the direct formal workforce.
- But there are not enough companies of this type. India has fewer large companies relative to gross domestic product (GDP) than China, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand.
Why does India have fewer large companies?
In 2018, the revenues of large Indian companies accounted for 48% of nominal GDP. The contribution of large companies from other emerging economies such as China, Malaysia and Thailand was 1.5 to 1.6 times that of India. There are not enough large companies in India due to the lack of medium and medium-sized companies. It is the midsize companies that become large companies and create jobs and competition along the way. As MGI points out: “India’s 1,500 midsize companies with a trillion dollars of GDP, with revenues between 40 and 500 million dollars, are only half the number of similar emerging economies compared to their GDP.”
Does the slow growth of the body have something to do with this?
In 2012, the revenues of large companies in India amounted to around 58% of GDP. In 2018, that figure fell to 48% of GDP. This weak business growth resulted in slow economic growth and a situation where only 77 midsize companies went big between 2012 and 2018. By comparison, 93 midsize companies went big between 2008 and 2012.
Why can’t midsize companies grow?
In large part, there are two reasons for this. The first is the high cost of compliance in India. Small and medium-sized companies lack “organizational resources to handle costly procedures … compared to large companies,” as the MGI report notes. It takes 1,445 days to fulfill a contract in India. In South Korea, it takes 290 days. So, Indian companies are not growing. Second, the lack of access to low-cost capital prevents companies from growing. This problem can be solved by deepening the financial markets of India.
What steps should be taken to solve this problem?
India needs to triple the size of its large companies by 2030. This can happen if more than 1,000 medium-sized businesses and 10,000 small businesses can scale, creating millions of jobs. This requires unlocking the land supply and allowing prices to fall by 20-25%, creating flexible labor markets, privatizing the 30 largest USP companies, distributing energy efficiently, improving performance by conducting specific business and sector policies to improve the productivity.
Indian Air Force celebrates the 88th Air Force Day
Indian Air Force celebrates the 88th Air Force Day on Thursday, October 8. The day is marked by the main event comprising a parade and flypast at Hindon Air Force Base, as well as events at IAF facilities across the country, this time with many restrictions due to the pandemic. A look at the reasons why the day is celebrated, the traditions attributed to it and its meaning.
Air Force Day, October 8
- October 8 is celebrated as Air Force Day because on this day the Air Force in India was officially established in 1932 as a support force for the Royal Air Force of the Kingdom. -United.
- The first operational squadron was formed in April 1933. After participating in World War II, the Indian Air Force became the Royal Indian Air Force in the mid-1940s.
- In 1950, after birth from the republic, it became the Indian Air Force. Out of six officers and 19 sepoys from Hawaii in 1933, the Air Force is now the fourth largest in the world.
- For several decades until 2005-2006, Air Force Day was marked by the main event, the parade, and the flyover at Palam. But due to growing air traffic problems, he moved to the Hindon Air Base in Ghaziabad, which is home to, among other things, two squadrons of transport planes and a helicopter unit.
- Aerial flybys and occasional displays have traditionally shown air force aircraft and systems in service. Air Force Day events and traditions
- The main event at Hindon Air Base includes a parade of male and female air warriors. It also has an investiture ceremony where the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) places medals on the uniforms of those who have been declared recipients.
- Each year, in addition to being televised, the event is also attended by large numbers of serving and retired military personnel, air warriors, and their families and citizens.
- This year, the number of participants will be much smaller due to current COVID restrictions. CAS Air RKS Chief Marshal Bhadauria will review the parade on Thursday.
- The day’s celebrations also traditionally include an “at home” reception hosted by CAS, attended by key government officials and senior officials. Former Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal PV Naik (retired) said: “In addition to the parade, the medal ceremony and the air parade, a key feature is the function is the speech of the chief of the force aerial. Where the leader addresses not only the warriors of the air but also the nation. In this speech, the air chief addresses the existing situation and attempts to present a roadmap. It is a day when the brave warriors of the air, men and women, reaffirm their determination to protect the nation. “
- The flypast consists of the display of various fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, as well as an aerobatic display. A full dress rehearsal for the event was held on Tuesday.
- This year the Tejas LCA, Mig-29 and 21 and Sukhoi-30 will be presented as well as the new Rafale aircraft. It will also have helicopters such as the Mi17V5, Chinook, Mi-35, ALH Rudra and Apache and transport aircraft such as the C-17 Globemaster, C-130, IL-76 Gajraj, among others.
- Suryakiran’s fixed-wing aerobatic team and the Sarang helicopter aerobatic team will also be key attractions.
- At IAF stations across the country, the event is punctuated by a variety of functions, including a gathering of area IAF veterans and a bada khana for staff from stationed units.
- This year, while veterans meetings have been suspended in most formations, other celebrations have also been reduced due to the pandemic.
Indian air bubble arrangements
Although India continues to increase its air bubble colonies, several jurisdictions have begun restricting travel from India due to the high burden of Covid19 cases in the country. However, the general direction that the government is taking in air transport is to lift the restrictions imposed when operations are restarted.
With which countries does India have air bubble agreements?
India currently has air bubble agreements with 13 countries. These are the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, United Arab Emirates, Maldives, Canada, Japan, Bahrain, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Qatar, and Iraq.
- The Center also negotiates these agreements with other countries such as Australia, Italy, New Zealand, Israel, Kenya, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.
- In addition to air bubble flights, Indian carriers travel to these countries as part of Vande Bharat’s mission to repatriate Indian nationals.
What jurisdictions have restricted air travel from India?
- While some countries like Kuwait have a total ban on travel to and from India, jurisdictions like Hong Kong have a continuous suspension of Air India flights to their airport until October 3.
- Hong Kong had banned Air India flights to Vande Bharat for two weeks after several passengers brought in by the airline tested positive for the coronavirus.
- Dubai authorities also banned Air India Express flights after the airline carried Covid19-positive passengers on two occasions. However, the emirate lifted the ban after the airline profusely apologized.
- Another West Asian country, Saudi Arabia, earlier this week announced a travel ban to and from India, as well as Brazil and Argentina, for a large number of cases but then it authorized the repatriation flights of Vande Bharat passengers to India from airports like Riyadh and Dammam.
What are the relaxations that come with air travel?
- On the domestic front, the government has gradually lifted some restrictions, such as relaxing the limit on the number of flights from 45% of the pre-Covid number to 60%.
- In addition, on-board catering has been authorized in national sectors. In the latest development on Thursday, the Civil Aviation Ministry allowed airlines to decide on baggage rules.
- Previously, the guidelines for resuming domestic travel, effective May 25, only allowed one piece of luggage to be checked per passenger.
When should scheduled international flights resume?
- The resumption of regular international operations remains dependent on destination jurisdictions authorizing travel from India. Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri alluded to how difficult it was to predict when other countries would allow Indians to enter the country.
- “In our case, we started with a mandatory 14-day quarantine: 7 days in an establishment and 7 days of self-quarantine.
- Now we have introduced an innovation, if you have a certificate of an RT-PCR test performed within the last 96 hours, you can go through the green channel. We open these things so that we can move towards normality, ”he said.
Indian agriculture system : an overview
Government efforts to reform India’s agricultural sector have divided opinions and sparked debate over the state of Indian agriculture. In the context of this debate, two long-standing features of Indian agriculture stand out.
- First, Indian agriculture is not profitable. Second, it has been heavily regulated by the government and protected from the free play of market forces.
- According to the government, the new bills passed by Parliament attempt to facilitate the sale and production by farmers for the private sector.
- The hope is that liberalizing the sector and allowing greater interplay of market forces will make Indian agriculture more efficient and profitable for farmers. In this context, it is important to understand some of the basic concepts of Indian agriculture.
Participations, income and debts
At the time of independence, around 70% of India’s workforce (just under 100 million) was employed in the agricultural sector. Even then, agriculture and related activities accounted for about 54% of India’s national income.
- Over the years, the contribution of agriculture to national production has been greatly reduced. In 2019-20, it was below 17% (in terms of gross value added).
- And yet, the proportion of Indians engaged in agriculture fell from 70% to only 55%.
- As the Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income (2017) observes, “the dependence of rural labor on agriculture for employment has not diminished in proportion to the decline in the contribution of agriculture to GDP ”.
- A crucial statistic is the proportion of landless workers (among those involved in this sector), as it reflects the increasing level of impoverishment. It went from 28% (27 million) in 1951 to 55% (144 million) in 2011.
- Although the number of people dependent on agriculture has increased over the years, the average size of the properties has been drastically reduced, even to the point of not being able to produce efficiently.
- Data shows that 86% of all land in India is small (between 1 and 2 hectares) and marginal (less than one hectare, about half a football field). The average size of marginal farms is only 0.37 ha.
- According to a 2015 study by Ramesh Chand, now a member of Niti Aayog, a plot of less than 0.63 ha does not provide enough income to stay above the poverty line.
- The combined result of several of these inefficiencies is that the majority of Indian farmers are heavily indebted. Data shows that 40% of the 24 lakh households operating on land of less than 0.01 ha are in debt. The average amount is 31,000 rupees.
- A good reason why such a high proportion of farmers are so in debt is that Indian agriculture, for the most part, is not remunerative. Figure 3 shows the monthly income estimates for a farm household in four very different states, as well as the number for India as a whole.
- Some of the more populous states like Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh have very low income levels and very high debt ratios. And even the relatively wealthiest states have quite high debt levels.
Buy Sell
Another way to understand the plight of farmers relative to the rest of the economy is to look at the terms of trade between farmers and non-farmers.
- The terms of trade are the ratio of the prices farmers pay for their inputs to the prices farmers receive for their production, said Himanshu, economics professor at JNU. As such, 100 is the benchmark.
- If the ToT is less than 100, it means the farmers are worse off. As shown in Figure 4, ToC improved rapidly between 2004-05 and 2010-11 to exceed the 100 mark, but has since deteriorated for farmers.
- A key variable in the debate is the role of minimum support prices. Many protesters fear that governments will cancel the MSP system. The MSP is the price at which the government buys a crop from a farmer.
- Over the years, MSPs have achieved several goals. They pushed farmers towards the production of essential crops needed to achieve basic self-sufficiency in food grains. PSMs provide “guaranteed prices” and an “assured market” to farmers and protect them from price fluctuations. This is crucial because most farmers are not sufficiently informed.
- But although PSM is advertised for around 23 crops, actual purchases are very low for crops like wheat and rice.
- Furthermore, the percentage of public contracts varies greatly from one state to another (Figure 5). As a result, real market prices, what farmers get, are often lower than those of the PSM.
Other variables
- These trends in revenue, debt, and acquisitions are aligned with interstate migration. Table 6 shows the states that experience the highest emigration.
- Finally, the government hopes that these reforms, including facilitating the storage of food products, will boost the agri-food industry. An RBI study found that India has plenty of room to develop in this regard and generate jobs and income.
India’s July manufacturing PMI contracts faster than in
Data released by the data analytics firm IHS Markit showed purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing declined slightly in July to 46 from 47.2 in June.
- A figure of above 50 indicates expansion, while a sub-50 print signals contraction.
- Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), the country’s largest fuel retailer on Friday said that its capacity utilization, which had increased to around 93% in the first week of July, has come down to 75% on account of many state governments imposing fresh lockdowns measures.
- The IMF has estimated Indian economy to contract by 4.5% in FY21, while Goldman Sachs expected the June quarter to be the worst, with GDP shrinking by 45% as business activity came to a standstill for at least two months due to stringent lockdown measures.
- ICRA Ltd earlier this month revised its GDP projection for India in FY21 to contraction of 9.5% from 5% estimated earlier citing unabated rise in covid-19 infections in the unlock phase and persisting labour supply mismatches affecting supply chains and consumption patterns.
- “Given the severity of the pandemic and the duration of the safety measures that need to be employed, we now expect a deeper pace of GDP contraction in Q2 FY21 relative to our earlier forecast.
- The timeline for a firmer recovery out of the contractionary phase is now being pushed ahead to at least Q4 FY21 from Q3 FY21,” it added.
- Subdued demand was evident in the latest PMI by marked decrease in new orders placed with manufacturers during July.
- Similar to the trend for output, the pace of decline accelerated from June, but remained slower than at the height of the current crisis.
- However, despite current operating conditions continuing to deteriorate, manufacturers were increasingly optimistic regarding future activity.
- Sentiment towards the 12-month business outlook improved for the second month in a row to reach a five-month high even though the degree of positivity was still well below the historical average.
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