31st October 2020

Confidant Classes

A Premier Judicial Service Coaching

Results of serological survey in India

A serological survey in Pune has provided new evidence that the spread of Covid-19 in India has been much greater than what is detected by confirmatory tests. In Pune, more than 51% of those who have been tested have shown the presence of antibodies specific to the new coronavirus, suggesting that around half of the population of this city of 4 million people may already be infected.

  • By the time the serological survey was conducted between July 20 and August 5, less than a lakh of people in the city had been found infected during confirmatory testing. Therefore, the actual spread could be 20 times greater than what confirmatory tests detected.
  • Previous serological surveys in Delhi and Mumbai have also given similar results. A previous exercise in Delhi had suggested that the actual spread could be 40 times the number of confirmed cases. A new round of survey in the national capital, the results of which have not yet been officially published, confirms this.

Results of serological survey in India: what is the end result?

  • These tests have been woefully adequate, despite a huge increase in the testing infrastructure. From the ability to test just a few hundred samples at the start of the outbreak in March to over eight lakh of testing per day now, there has been a massive upgrade in testing infrastructure. And yet, serological tests show that the vast majority of those infected are still excluded, especially those who have no symptoms.
  • Appropriate testing is essential for containment strategies. This is the only method to identify and isolate infected people and their close contacts.
  • The more tests are done, the better the chances of detecting infected people, including those who are asymptomatic.
  • Timely isolation of these can prevent transmission to other people. Therefore, more tests directly influence the slowing of the spread of the disease.
  • Given the current extent of the disease, based on the results of seroprevalence surveys, the screening capacity should be increased several times to make a significant difference in the growth of the disease.
  • It probably won’t happen overnight. So, while it would still be important to keep testing as many people as possible, you’ve passed the stage where testing was the most effective tool for flattening the growth chart.

What does it mean when so many people are susceptible to infection?

  • There is a silver lining in the absence of proper testing. The progression to a level of infection where “herd immunity” begins to sound plausible, it seems, has been faster than it would have been possible if more tests had been done and more tests were carried out. infected people were identified and isolated.
  • The conventional wisdom is that increased testing and isolation slows disease growth and delays the achievement of widespread immunity in the community.
  • The caveat remains; Scientists do not yet know the level of infection in the population in which “herd immunity” would begin to play a role. But regardless of the level, India has moved towards community-level immunity at a faster rate than the ability to conduct further testing and isolation would have allowed.

How do serologic results relate to confirmatory test results?

  • The serological survey in Pune has some interesting results. The room in which the highest prevalence was detected is also the one that is currently growing at the slowest rate in recent weeks.
  • In this area, Lohiya Nagar, more than 60% of the participants were detected with antibodies. It would still be premature to suggest that Lohiya Nagar could be close to achieving community-level immunity, but scientists can now look at other areas that come close to that level of infection to see if the disease behaves in the same way. At the moment, there is not enough data to draw conclusions.
  • There are also other indicators, cities with very high prevalence rates, like Delhi, Mumbai or Pune, have already started to show signs of slowing down.
  • Growth rates in Delhi and Mumbai have been declining for some time, while Pune is just starting to join the trend.
  • The number of breeders, or R, for these cities has increased from R1 is the number of people infected, on average, by one person already infected. An R-value of less than 1 would mean that, on average, all people infected.
  • There are also some other indicators cities with very high prevalence rates, such as Delhi, Mumbai or Pune, have already started to show signs of slowing down. Growth rates in Delhi and Mumbai have been declining for some time, while Pune is just beginning to join the trend.
  • The number of breeding animals, or R, for these cities has dropped below 1. R is the number of people infected, on average, by an already infected person.
  • An R value of less than 1 would mean that, on average, not all infected people transmit the virus to others. Generally, an R value of less than 1 signifies the beginning of the epidemic’s decline, although in this case care must be taken to draw conclusions, as the pandemic is still ongoing, the information is still evolving and the R values they are only estimates.
  • But the decline in growth rates and R values ​​is in line with what is expected when about half the population has already contracted the infection.
  • The pool of uninfected people is gradually shrinking and therefore the transmission rate is decreasing due to the availability of fewer potentially infected people.

But is it not understood that immunity through a community is not a certainty?

  • In fact, there are important caveats. Serological surveys reveal only the likely extent of disease prevalence in a population group.
  • Infected people do not necessarily have to have developed immunity.
  • As scientists constantly insist, getting the infection and building immunity are two different things.
  • The serological survey allows to know the number of people who have specific antibodies against the disease.
  • The presence of these antibodies is an indication that they have been infected at some point.
  • But immunity comes from so-called “neutralizing” antibodies or “protective” antibodies.
  • Serological studies do not detect neutralizing antibodies. For this, another test is necessary.
  • And although no case of reinfection has been detected so far, the matter remains open for investigation.
  • Immunity at the community level is only possible if those who have been infected also develop immunity to the disease. At the moment, we don’t know.
  • This is the next step of the investigation. Scientists are already preparing to perform exercises in which they would try to assess whether an infected person has developed immunity.
  • Until then, debates on “herd immunity” would not be substantial.
Judiciary FAQ’s Download

Judiciary FAQ’s Download

WWW.CONFIDANTCLASSES.IN-1Download
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 23.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 23.10.2020

Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the latest to promise free Covid-19 vaccine Ahead of the 28-seat Assembly by-elections in Madhya Pradesh,…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 22.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 22.10.2020

BJP promises free Covid-19 vaccine in Bihar investigation manifesto On Thursday, the BJP released its manifesto for the Assembly elections…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 21.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 21.10.2020

Rajasthan could become second state to reject agricultural laws Rajasthan is likely to become the second state ruled by Congress…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 20.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 20.10.2020

Punjab adopts its own three agricultural laws The Punjab Legislature today unanimously adopted three bills to repeal the three new…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 19.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 19.10.2020

Visitors will not be allowed inside the Durga Puja pandals in West Bengal – Calcutta High Court: Visitors will not…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 18.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 18.10.2020

India passed peak of COVID-19, Ministry of Science panel said India passed peak of COVID-19 in September and if current…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 17.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 17.10.2020

Take advantage of the experience of holding mass elections to plan the rapid delivery of the vaccine, said the Prime…
Read More
Cinemas reopened

Cinemas reopened

After being closed for nearly seven months, cinemas outside containment zones in various Indian states reopened on October 15. But…
Read More
Amy Coney Barrett used the term “sexual preference”

Amy Coney Barrett used the term “sexual preference”

During her confirmation hearings on Capitol Hill earlier this week, US Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett sparked considerable outrage…
Read More
Daily NEWS Summary: 16.10.2020

Daily NEWS Summary: 16.10.2020

Supreme Court Appoints Former Judge Madan Lokur As One-Man Group To Prevent Stubble-Burning Smog Former Supreme Court Justice Madan B….
Read More
error

Enjoy this? Please spread the word :)