Global Peace Index 2020

World peace has deteriorated in the past year, the fourth time in the past five years that the world has experienced a decline in peace. This year’s results show that the level of world peace has deteriorated, with an average country score falling by 0.34%. It is the ninth deterioration of peace in the past twelve years, with 81 countries improving and 80 recording deteriorations in the past year.

GPI 2020 reveals a world in which the conflicts and crises that have arisen over the past decade have started to diminish, to be replaced by a new wave of tension and uncertainty after the COVID -19 pandemic.

Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has occupied since 2008. It joins the top of the index for New Zealand, Austria, Portugal and Denmark.

Afghanistan is the least peaceful country in the world for the second consecutive year, followed by Syria, Iraq, South Sudan and Yemen. All, with the exception of Yemen, have been ranked among the five least peaceful since at least 2015.

Only two of the nine regions of the world have become more peaceful in the past year. The greatest improvement occurred in the Russia and Eurasia region, followed by North America.

North America was the only region that registered improvements in all three areas, while Russia and Eurasia registered improvements in ongoing conflicts and security, but deterioration in the area of militarization.

The world is now considerably less peaceful than it was at the beginning of the index. Since 2008, the average level of peace in the country has deteriorated by 3.76%. There have been years of deteriorating calm in nine of the past 12 years.

The decline in peace in the past decade has been caused by a wide range of factors, including the escalation of terrorist activities, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the rise of regional tensions in Eastern Europe and in Northeast Europe and Asia, the increase in the number of refugees and the intensification of political tensions. in Europe and the United States.

The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2019 was $ 14.5 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). This figure equals 10.6% of global economic activity (gross world product) or $ 1,909 per person.

The economic impact of the violence improved by 0.2% from 2018 to 2019. The greatest improvement occurred in armed conflicts, which fell 29% to $ 521 billion, due to a decrease in the intensity of conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa.

There has also been a substantial reduction in the economic impact of terrorism, which decreased by 48% from 2018 to 2019.

Violence continues to have a significant impact on economic performance worldwide. In the ten countries most affected by violence, the average economic impact of violence was equivalent to 41% of GDP on average, compared to less than 4% in the countries least affected by violence.

Syria, South Sudan, Afghanistan and Venezuela incurred the highest proportional economic cost of violence in 2019, at 60, 57, 51 and 48% of GDP, respectively.

The report’s Positive Peace investigation focuses on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Positive Peace. Positive peace measures a country’s ability to maintain peace. Falls in positive peace generally precede falls in peace.

The impact of the pandemic, in particular its economic consequences, will likely have a severe impact on the way societies operate. This impact could lead to the deterioration of Positive Peace and increase the risk of outbreaks of violence and conflict. Europe is likely to see an increase in civil unrest as the looming recession looms, while many countries in Africa will face starvation, creating further stress in many fragile countries.

Countries with strong Positive Peace have a greater resilience to absorb, adapt and recover from crises, such as COVID-19 and the resulting recession. In particular, nations that perform well on the pillars of good governance and the strong business environment of the Positive Peace Index are more likely to recover relatively quickly from the crisis.

There is also evidence to suggest that countries with higher levels of Positive Peace have been quicker to adapt and respond to the pandemic. Looking only at nations within the OECD, the countries that perform best in good government performance and high levels of human capital pillars have been able to assess a larger proportion of their population for the COVID-19 virus.

The GPI 2020 report also has a special focus on the IEP’s latest research report: the Ecological Threat Register (ETR), which combines a confluence of ecological risks with Positive Peace and economic coping capacity to better understand potential risks. Futures and the weaknesses that nations will face in the future. The next three decades. It also extrapolates population projections through 2050 to better understand the areas that will be most affected.

The ETR aims to show both exposure to risk and the ability of nations to cope with these ecological risks. The increase in the number of ecological threats can already be seen. The total number of natural disasters has tripled in the past four decades, while their economic impact has also increased, from $ 50 billion in the 1980s to $ 200 billion per year in the past decade.

More than two billion people already live in countries experiencing high water stress. By 2050, climate change is expected to create up to 86 million additional migrants in sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million in South Asia, and 17 million

This year’s report includes new research on the possible effects of climate change on peace. Since 2008, world peace has deteriorated by 3.78%, the report found.

The GPI was founded by Steve Killelea, an Australian technology entrepreneur and philanthropist. The report covers 99.7% of the world’s population and uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from well-respected sources to compile the index.

The Australian think tank Institute for Economics & Peace classifies countries according to their level of peace according to three thematic areas: the level of security of society, the scope of current national and international conflicts and the degree of militarization.

India’s ranking fell five places to 141 out of 163 countries in the 2019 World Peace Index. In South Asia, Bhutan topped the index in 15th place, followed by Sri Lanka 72, Nepal 76 and Bangladesh 101. Pakistan, a neighboring country, was ranked 153. in the index.

India as well as the Philippines, Japan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Pakistan are the nine countries most exposed to multiple climate risks.

The country has the seventh highest overall natural risk score, according to the report’s findings. India, the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia are the top five countries with the highest total military spending, he added.

According to the report, South Asia’s score for each indicator of ongoing conflict is less peaceful than the global average, with four in six deteriorating last year. Only deaths from internal conflicts have improved, with fewer deaths in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India than in the previous year.

The score for internal conflicts being fought was highest with five in India and Pakistan. China, Bangladesh and India rank in the bottom half of the IPG and are highly exposed to climate risks, with 393 million people in high-risk areas, the report notes.